Calibration

Calibration refers to whether a model's expressed confidence or probability scores accurately reflect empirical accuracy. A well-calibrated model that claims 80% confidence should be right about 80% of the time. Poor calibration — overconfidence or underconfidence — undermines reliability in high-stakes decisions. Calibration is measured with expected calibration error, reliability diagrams, and related tools; it can be improved through temperature scaling or other post-hoc methods.